地政学を英国で学んだ

空海のことば

「山川は長くして萬世なり、人は短くして百年なり」

スパイクマンも全く似たようなことを言ってます。ちょっと気になったのでメモ代わりに。

イギリスで内乱警戒？

イギリスで銀行の取り付け騒ぎにはじまる社会不安から発生する内乱を警戒する動きが出てきました。

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MI5 ALERT ON BANK RIOTS

Sunday March 1,2009
By Geraint Jone

TOP secret contingency plans have been drawn up to counter the threat posed by a “summer of discontent” in Britain.

The “double-whammy” of the worst economic crisis in living memory and a motley crew of political extremists determined to stir up civil disorder has led to the extraordinary step of the Army being put on standby.

MI5 and Special Branch are targeting activists they fear could inflame anger over job losses and payouts to failed bankers.

One of the most notorious anarchist websites, Class War, asks: “How to keep warm during the credit crunch? Burn a banker.”

Such remarks have rung alarm bells in Scotland Yard and the Ministry of Defence.

Intelligence sources said the police, backed by MI5, are determined to stay on top of a situation that could spiral out of control as the recession bites deep.

The chilling prospect of soldiers being drafted on to the streets has not been discounted, although it is regarded as a last resort.

What worries emergency planners most is that the middle classes, now struggling to cope with unemployment and repossessions, may take to the streets with the disenfranchised.

The source said “this potent cocktail is reminiscent of the poll tax riots which fatally wounded Margaret Thatcher’s government in 1990”.

Last night Scotland Yard vowed it was ready to face any threat. A source said: “We do have a policing plan in place and we have riot police officers trained for such measures.”

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「銀行家を火あぶりにしろ！」という過激なコメントが政治サイトに載ったらしいですね。こりゃイギリスの警察や軍隊も警戒するわけです。

人間というのは、当たり前ですが同じ量でも「得た時」より「失った時」のほうが精神的ショックを受けるものなんですよね。

この夏は熱い夏になりそうですが、その前にこの三月中にも大変化が起こるような気が。

世界のニュースから当分目が離せそうにもありません。

「新しい地政学」カンファレンス

毎年スイスで開催されているイギリスのシンクタンクの安全保障関連会議の日程が発表されました。

とりあえずメンバーだけが参加可能で、しかも参加費はべらぼうに高いのですが、どういうスケジュールとテーマなのかだけでも一応。

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The Seventh IISS Global Strategic Review

‘The New Geopolitics’

11-13 September 2009, Geneva, Switzerland

Skeletal Agenda

All events will take place at
The InterContinental Hotel,
7-9 Chemin Du Petit-Saconnex, Geneva 1211

The Plenary Sessions (presentations and discussion) will be on-the-record
Break Out Groups are off-the-record

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FRIDAY 11 SEPTEMBER 2009

Afternoon Delegates arrive in Geneva; Registration

18:30-19:30 OPENING RECEPTION

19:30-22:00 INTRODUCTORY REMARKS
KEYNOTE ADDRESS

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SATURDAY 12 SEPTEMBER 2009

08:30-08:45 OPENING REMARKS

08:45-09:45 FIRST PLENARY SESSION
“CRISIS OF THE DAY”
or AFGHANISTAN AND IRAN: NEW OPENINGS?

10:00-11:30 SECOND PLENARY SESSION
THE US AND CRISIS DIPLOMACY

11:30-12:00 Coffee Break

12:00-13:15 THIRD PLENARY SESSION
NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT AND NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION

13:30-14:45 Lunch

15:00-16:30 SIMULTANEOUS BREAK OUT GROUPS (FIRST SITTING)

Group 1: CLIMATE CHANGE AND ARCTIC SECURITY
Group 2: TBC
Group 3: MARITIME SECURITY AND PIRACY
Group 4: COUNTER-TERRORISM: NEW APPROACHES
Group 5: RUSSIA AND EUROPEAN SECURITY
Group 6: THE AFGHAN/PAKISTAN SECURITY NEXUS
Group 7: REGIONAL SECURITY ARCHITECTURE IN THE PERSIAN GULF

16:30-17:00 Coffee Break

17:00-18:30 SIMULTANEOUS BREAK OUT GROUPS (SECOND SITTING)

Group 8: WATER SECURITY AND GEOPOLITICS
Group 9: INTELLIGENCE AND SECURITY
Group 10: CO-OPERATIVE BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENCE
Group 11: TRENDS IN INTERNATIONAL LAW AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
Group 12: ENERGY SECURITY IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION
Group 13: TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONS IN THE OBAMA ERA
Group 14: THE ECONOMIC FACTOR IN THE ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN RELATIONSHIP

19:30-22:30 DINNER TV PANEL
NINE MONTHS IN: OBAMA AND THE WORLD


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SUNDAY 13 SEPTEMBER 2009


08:45-09:45 FOURTH PLENARY SESSION
THE ECONOMIC CRISIS AND INTERNATIONAL ORDER

09:45-11:00 FIFTH PLENARY SESSION
EVOLVING BALANCE OF POWER IN ASIA

11:00-11:30 Coffee Break

11:30-13:00 SIXTH PLENARY SESSION
THE ROLE OF THE MILITARY IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

13:00-13:15 ENVOI

13:15-14:30 CLOSING LUNCHEON

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個別の話題は二日に集中していて、最終日はバランスオブパワーのような大きな話題に移るということですね

イギリス人というのは基本的に公共のサービスとはダメダメなんですが、こういうカンファレンスとかの類いをセットアップするのだけは異様にうまいんですよね。なぜなんでしょうか（苦笑

インド洋の地政学 by カプラン

いつかは書いてくれると思いましたが、やはり書いてくれました。

ややリベラル寄りのアトランティック誌の中で安全保障関連で鋭い記事を書くロバート・カプランが、とうとうフォーリンアフェアーズ誌に地政学バリバリの論文を書いてくれました。

「インド洋は地理的な存在であると同時にアイディアそのものである」という言葉にはしびれました（笑

以前からインド洋について彼は短い論文をいろんなところで発表していたんですが、まさかFAにまとまったものを出すとは。

これをまとめた本をはやく読みたいものです。

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Center Stage for the Twenty-first Century
Power Plays in the Indian Ocean

Robert D. Kaplan
From Foreign Affairs, March/April 2009

The greater Indian Ocean region encompasses the entire arc of Islam, from the Sahara Desert to the Indonesian archipelago. Although the Arabs and the Persians are known to Westerners primarily as desert peoples, they have also been great seafarers. In the Middle Ages, they sailed from Arabia to China; proselytizing along the way, they spread their faith through sea-based commerce. Today, the western reaches of the Indian Ocean include the tinderboxes of Somalia, Yemen, Iran, and Pakistan -- constituting a network of dynamic trade as well as a network of global terrorism, piracy, and drug smuggling. Hundreds of millions of Muslims -- the legacy of those medieval conversions -- live along the Indian Ocean's eastern edges, in India and Bangladesh, Malaysia and Indonesia.

The Indian Ocean is dominated by two immense bays, the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, near the top of which are two of the least stable countries in the world: Pakistan and Myanmar (also known as Burma). State collapse or regime change in Pakistan would affect its neighbors by empowering Baluchi and Sindhi separatists seeking closer links to India and Iran. Likewise, the collapse of the junta in Myanmar -- where competition over energy and natural resources between China and India looms -- would threaten economies nearby and require a massive seaborne humanitarian intervention. On the other hand, the advent of a more liberal regime in Myanmar would undermine China's dominant position there, boost Indian influence, and quicken regional economic integration.

In other words, more than just a geographic feature, the Indian Ocean is also an idea

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この論文はさっそく友人達にまわします（笑

オバマ政権の国防費について

いやー、ひさしぶりの更新です。

オバマ政権の国防費について、ローレンス・コルブが良くまとまっている分析記事を書いておりました。

私は先生に「戦略とは予算のことだ」と習いましたが、たしかに今回の国防費の内訳は見物です。

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Obama’s Defense Budget Is on Target

By Lawrence J. Korb | February 26, 2009

Specific budget recommendations

President Barack Obama’s topline budget projections for fiscal year 2010 allocate $534 billion to the Department of Defense, the largest allocation of any department. The amount represents roughly a 4-percent increase over the $513 billion allocated to the Pentagon in FY2009 under the Bush administration, and $6.7 billion more than the outgoing administration’s projections for FY 2010.

Supporters of a vastly increased defense budget, including many who support the Pentagon’s internal request for $584 billion for FY2010, have argued that Obama’s baseline represents a budget cut in a time of war. They contend that this so-called reduction will unnerve our allies, embolden our enemies and, by ending programs like the F-22 Raptor and slowing down programs like the F-35 and Future Combat Systems, will not only weaken defense but hurt our economy. Objective analysis reveals that these arguments are without merit.

The defense budget has nearly doubled in real terms in the last decade, and this year’s $534 billion baseline provides adequate funding to maintain the quality of our troops and military infrastructure, and modernize the force. This amount does not in any way undermine the war effort, as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are financed in separate supplementals, which to date total nearly $1 trillion. Obama has promised $130 billion more for these efforts in FY2010.

Nor will this level of funding unnerve our allies or embolden our enemies. Adding the supplementals for the war to the regular budget will bring total defense spending to about $700 billion for FY2010, more in real terms than at anytime since World War II, and more than what the rest of the world combined spends on defense.

The FY2010 budget offers two necessary changes from past Bush administration budgets. First, Obama will reportedly hold the defense budget flat at FY2010 levels over the next 10 years, adjusting only for inflation. The Center for American Progress made a similar recommendation in “Building a Military for the 21st Century: New Realities, New Priorities,” which in December 2008 argued that the current sum of $534 billion:

“If used wisely, is more than enough to ensure American military predominance while recapitalizing equipment lost in Iraq and Afghanistan, and growing and modernizing the force. The next administration should therefore keep the defense budget flat over the next four years, adjusting for inflation and fluctuations in the U.S. dollar.”

Second, after over seven years of war in Afghanistan and nearly six years in Iraq, the Obama administration’s budget will include the cost of the two wars for the first time. Under the Bush administration, the cost of the wars—currently totaling $657 billion for Iraq and $173 billion for Afghanistan[1]—was appropriated through emergency supplementals, a process that allowed the services to take advantage of war-funding bills to request money for significant non-war-related projects, such as additional F-22 Raptors, that should have been included in the DOD’s baseline budget. CAP advocated reforming the process:

“DOD should in the future submit appropriations for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan with the baseline request in one consolidated budget. This procedure will allow lawmakers to scrutinize the items from the supplemental and force Congress and DOD leaders to make trade-offs and hard choices when considering the FY2010-13 defense budget priorities.”

The Center for American Progress is encouraged that the Obama administration has adopted a similar stance.

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日本の年間国家予算よりやや少ない額が国防費についやされている事実を見ても、その影響力を分析することは大切になってきますよね。

上の分析によると、ブッシュ政権の時との違いは、１、２０１０年レベルを今後十年間維持する、２、二つの戦争にかかる費用を補正予算ではなく正式予算にまとめて組み込む、ということみたいです。

しかしオバマでも国防費はブッシュの頃と全く変えることができないんですなぁ。実質的に４％の増加の６６３７億ドルで、それに色々余計なものがついて合計７千億ドルですから（苦笑