地政学を英国で学んだ

パーフェクト・ストーム

こういう記事がアメリカで出てきました。来年の後半までには世界経済が回復するなんてこと、本気で信じている人はまだまだいるみたいですが、これこそ「希望的観測」というものではないでしょうか？

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'Perfect storm' puts all types in financial peril

By Christine Dugas, USA TODAY

The current financial crisis is all-inclusive; our path to prosperity or even simple financial stability seemingly obliterated.

With every furlough, layoff or stock market drop, Americans of all ages and backgrounds are seeing their incomes dwindle, bills pile up and financial options disappear.

The number who are suffering has increased by 3 million the past year, according to a recent Gallup-Healthways survey. Some 37% of us said we were worried about money last week. Last year, 3.2 million consumers contacted the National Foundation for Credit Counseling, up from 2.2 million in 2007 and 1.4 million in 2006.

"What's happening to families is a perfect storm," says Bob Manning, a finance professor at Rochester Institute of Technology.

The personal stories illustrate how unemployment, health problems, shrinking retirement savings, unaffordable mortgages and other financial stressors lead to unprecedented challenges, worry and consequences. Recent history has shown periods when one area of concern consumed a family — a lost job for six weeks, for example — but nothing like this. And while people once could piece together solutions to recover financially or prevent outright financial ruin, fewer options exist today.

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家計に直結してくるから経済というのはパーソナルなものになるわけですよね。アメリカという国家もそうですが、アメリカ人は総じてカネを借り過ぎです。

引力の法則と同じで、使ったカネは返さなければならなくなるわけですから・・・。これからアメリカは本当に大変です。

プロパガンダ戦（中国vsアメリカ）

ペンタゴンが発表した毎年恒例の「中国の軍事力報告書」でさっそく応酬が。

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China Blasts Pentagon Report as Distortion of Facts

By Stephanie Ho

Beijing
26 March 2009

China says an annual report on the Chinese military, issued by the Pentagon, distorts the facts and wrongly presents the Asian giant as a military threat.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang was blunt in expressing his government's resolute opposition to the U.S. government report.

Qin says the report issued by the U.S. side continues to play up what he called "the fallacy of China's so-called military threat." He calls the Pentagon report a "gross distortion of facts and interference in China's internal affairs."

The U.S. Defense Department's annual report on China's military power said the Asian nation continues to increase the pace and scope of its military modernization. It also expressed concern about a lack of clarity on how Chinese leaders intend to use their growing capabilities.

Speaking to reporters in Beijing Thursday, the Chinese spokesman did not specifically address the issue of transparency, but said his country has no plans to retaliate with a report on the U.S. military.

Qin says the expansion of the U.S. military is already well known, so he thinks it is not necessary for China to issue its own report.

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この後の経過を見ると、どうやら中国側はけっこうおとなしいような。

「古典地政学の理論」の講演会

突然ですが、今夜、東京のとある勉強会で講師をつとめることになりました。

詳細は以下のリンク先にある通りですのでぜひ参考まで。

http://www.nationalstrategy.jp/forum.html

内容は私が個人的に行っている講演会の中の「地政学の基本理論」をさらにわかりやすくしたものです。

すでに私の講演会に何度か出席していらっしゃる皆さんにはやや物足りないかも知れませんが、「基本をもう一度おさらいしたい！」とお考えの方や、「入門的な内容から聞いてみたい！」と思っている方々はぜひ。

今後は似たような内容の講演会をこのように色々な場所で行っていく予定です。どうぞよろしくお願いします。

（江ノ島）

同意者を増やすピーター・シフ

MSNBCの「モーニング・ジョー」にピーター・シフが出演しておりました。

ブレジンスキーの娘（ミカ）に「私もそう思うわ」と同意してもらっております。

そういえば彼女は以前この番組で、自分の親父（ズビグネフ）に「何もすることがないからショッピングモールに買い物しに行く」と行ったらメチャメチャ怒られたという話を披露しておりました。

シフのように政府が進めている政策と正反対のことを言う人は日本だと映像メディアには出てこれませんが（苦笑



「政策的に正しいことは、政治的には不人気である」というコメントはいいですねぇ。ケインズ主義を徹底批判しております。

相変わらず「悲観主義だなぁ」と言われてますが（笑

以下は同じ番組で出て来たパネルから。アメリカが今後の国家予算がいかに大変なことになっているのかがよくわかります。

（MSNBCより）

南シナ海の「内海化」をめぐる戦い

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U.S. ship vs. U.N., PRC laws

A U.S. survey vessel is risking another confrontation in the waters around China when it arrives in the region this week — less than a month after a standoff near Hainan Island between Chinese patrol boats and a U.S. Navy surveillance ship.

The operators of the research ship, the Marcus G. Langseth, from Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, have permission to conduct a seismic survey of the ocean floor from the governments of Taiwan, the Philippines and Japan. Beijing was not informed.

The marine survey vessel has impeccable scientific credentials. There is no doubt the survey off Taiwan and the southern mainland is genuine and scientifically valid. But operating within China's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) without permission is provocation.

（中略）

Meanwhile, Washington has been active in recent months in nurturing its military and diplomatic relationship with its former enemy in Hanoi. Senior U.S. diplomats have defended U.S. oil activity in Vietnam, while U.S. naval officials have discussed South China Sea security and the prospect of more ship visits. They have also encouraged Vietnam's own naval expansion — something being watched closely in Beijing.

One of the most recent visitors to Hanoi was Admiral Robert Willard, head of the U.S. Pacific fleet. He was in talks there just as the Pentagon made public the Impeccable incident. On Friday, he was promoted to replace Admiral Timothy Keating as head of all U.S. forces in Asia and the Pacific.

The South China Sea, a complex and fraught arena, is one of the world's busiest shipping lanes and a conduit for more than half the world's oil-tanker traffic. A good share of that oil heads to Japan, Washington's vital ally in East Asia.

China has built a base in the south of Hainan for its expanding fleet of nuclear submarines, while the U.S. appears determined to maintain its presence as the region's top military power.

One retired PLA general said the ships that confronted the USNS Impeccable three weeks ago wanted to send a message to the U.S. that “the waters off Hainan were not the Gulf of Mexico where they could enter and exit freely.”

But U.S. observers say they are exactly that.

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アメリカもかなり中国側を挑発してますね。ベトナムに手を出して「リムランドの結託を許さない」という「分断して統治せよ」を敢行しております。

この海域は日本のSLOCsにあたるところですからもっと大々的に報道されてもいいようなもんですが・・・メディアは北朝鮮のミサイル問題で頭がいっぱいなようで（苦笑

同じメディアの以下の記事では事件の中心になったインペッカブルが海洋調査を続行しているようで、それにアーレイバーク級のイージス艦が護衛についたことが報じられております。

（チャン＝フー）


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China tries to strengthen its position

（中略）

The top U.S. commander for Asia and the Pacific, Admiral Timothy Keating, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that the incident “is certainly a troubling indicator that China, particularly in the South China Sea, is behaving in an aggressive, troublesome manner and they're not willing to abide by acceptable standards of behavior.”

Interestingly, at about the same time that the United States sent a destroyer into the South China Sea, China announced the dispatch of its largest and most modern patrol ship, the Yuzheng 311, into the same general area.

But the mission of that vessel is not to deal with the United States but rather with the countries of Southeast Asia, with which China has multiple territorial disputes.

China recently protested against the passage of a law by Manila which defined as Philippine territory a number of islands also claimed by Beijing.

It was after this that China sent the patrol boat into disputed areas in the South China Sea to “strengthen fishery administration.” Subsequently, Wu Zhuang, fisheries department director, was quoted as saying that additional patrol boats would be sent into the area to “protect China's rights and interests.”

Not surprisingly, some countries in Southeast Asia feel that China is flexing its muscles. However, the fact that China is dispatching fisheries patrol boats rather than its navy indicates that Beijing is attempting to appear less threatening.

Nonetheless, it would not escape the notice of Southeast Asian countries that China is backing down in its confrontation with the United States while strengthening its position vis-a-vis the smaller countries of the region.

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アメリカには屈したが他の小国（日本を含む？）には強くでた、というところがミソでしょうか。