2009年 04月 07日
日本の「失われた１０年」についての神話 |
FP誌のネット版に興味深い論説記事が。これはいくつかの質問に対して専門家に簡潔に答えてもらうという毎度おなじみのシリーズです。
もちろん論者自身の視点が反映された回答なんですが、日本のメディアの受け取り方との温度差をみていくと色々と面白い。
重要部分だけ切り貼りしたものを。
＝＝＝
Think Again: Japan's Lost Decade
By Christian Caryl
Posted April 2009
As the economic gloom deepens, many American politicians and commentators have invoked the recent history of Japan as a cautionary tale. But the comparison may be more misleading than helpful.
"Japan's Economy Collapsed in the 1990s."
Not exactly. Decades of extraordinarily high growth in postwar Japan culminated in a huge asset price bubble that reached its peak in 1989. When the bubble finally popped in 1990, wiping out billions of dollars in accumulated wealth, the country's growth rates turned anemic. Between 1990 and 2003 Japan dipped into and out of recession. Despite these troubles, though, Japanese GDP in the 1990s ultimately continued to grow at an average of about 1.5 percent per year, measured in real terms.
（中略）
"The Government Made It Worse by Spending Too Much."
No. Government policy did exacerbate the slowdown, but the picture is much more complicated. Bureaucrats and politicians certainly spent too much on the wrong sorts of things, especially bridge-to-nowhere-style construction projects with limited usefulness. But economists have concluded that large chunks of the spending -- particularly on useful infrastructure, healthcare, and education -- brought substantial benefits.
（中略）
"Japan Has Been Permanently Crippled by the Slowdown of the 1990s."
Hardly. To be sure, Japan has been hit extremely hard by the recent turmoil. At first it looked as though the Japanese economy might have good chances to ride out the crisis better than the United States, because Japanese financial institutions had largely averted the securitized mortgages and dubious derivatives that sent the U.S. economy reeling. But the slump in the United States, China, and Europe -- major markets for Japanese exports -- soon rebounded on Japan with vicious force.
（中略）
"The U.S. Today Is Like Japan in the 1990s."
Not really. To be sure, both recessions had their roots in the collapse of an asset price bubble based primarily on real estate. But there are some important differences.
（中略）
"Japan Is Irrevocably Bound for Economic and Political Decline."
Don't bet on it. To be sure, there are plenty of problems. Although many aspects of Japanese society have experienced profound change in recent years, the political system has remained remarkably static.
Politicians seem paralyzed -- even as the global economic crisis poses a whole set of new challenges to Japan's manufacturing-based economy.
＝＝＝
もちろん論者自身の視点が反映された回答なんですが、日本のメディアの受け取り方との温度差をみていくと色々と面白い。
重要部分だけ切り貼りしたものを。
＝＝＝
Think Again: Japan's Lost Decade
By Christian Caryl
Posted April 2009
As the economic gloom deepens, many American politicians and commentators have invoked the recent history of Japan as a cautionary tale. But the comparison may be more misleading than helpful.
"Japan's Economy Collapsed in the 1990s."
Not exactly. Decades of extraordinarily high growth in postwar Japan culminated in a huge asset price bubble that reached its peak in 1989. When the bubble finally popped in 1990, wiping out billions of dollars in accumulated wealth, the country's growth rates turned anemic. Between 1990 and 2003 Japan dipped into and out of recession. Despite these troubles, though, Japanese GDP in the 1990s ultimately continued to grow at an average of about 1.5 percent per year, measured in real terms.
（中略）
"The Government Made It Worse by Spending Too Much."
No. Government policy did exacerbate the slowdown, but the picture is much more complicated. Bureaucrats and politicians certainly spent too much on the wrong sorts of things, especially bridge-to-nowhere-style construction projects with limited usefulness. But economists have concluded that large chunks of the spending -- particularly on useful infrastructure, healthcare, and education -- brought substantial benefits.
（中略）
"Japan Has Been Permanently Crippled by the Slowdown of the 1990s."
Hardly. To be sure, Japan has been hit extremely hard by the recent turmoil. At first it looked as though the Japanese economy might have good chances to ride out the crisis better than the United States, because Japanese financial institutions had largely averted the securitized mortgages and dubious derivatives that sent the U.S. economy reeling. But the slump in the United States, China, and Europe -- major markets for Japanese exports -- soon rebounded on Japan with vicious force.
（中略）
"The U.S. Today Is Like Japan in the 1990s."
Not really. To be sure, both recessions had their roots in the collapse of an asset price bubble based primarily on real estate. But there are some important differences.
（中略）
"Japan Is Irrevocably Bound for Economic and Political Decline."
Don't bet on it. To be sure, there are plenty of problems. Although many aspects of Japanese society have experienced profound change in recent years, the political system has remained remarkably static.
Politicians seem paralyzed -- even as the global economic crisis poses a whole set of new challenges to Japan's manufacturing-based economy.
＝＝＝
by masa_the_man
| 2009-04-07 11:47
| ニュース
